What is atmospheric dispersion modelling?

Atmospheric dispersion modelling uses mathematical simulations to predict how pollutants from your operations will move through the surrounding air. The models calculate ground-level concentrations at sensitive receptor locations like nearby residences, schools, and community areas. These predictions are what regulators use to assess whether your project can demonstrate compliance with ambient air quality standards before operations begin, or as part of ongoing licence conditions.

Why choose us?

Every assessment we deliver is led by senior practitioners with direct regulatory experience. Our managing principal, Martin Parsons, has undertaken dispersion modelling assessments on behalf of regulators for projects of state significance, and that standard carries across the team. We produce technically excellent, robust, transparent and defensible modelling work.

How dispersion modelling supports your project

Dispersion modelling works on two fronts at once: clarifying what your project means for the community around it, and providing the technical foundation your regulatory submission rests on.

Managing environmental and community risk

Air quality impacts are often one of the most visible and sensitive aspects of a project. Our modelling helps you understand where impacts may occur, how they relate to nearby communities, and what mitigation measures are required. By identifying risks early, we support clear, evidence-based decisions that protect community health and amenity and reduce the likelihood of complaints, delays, or regulatory intervention.

Air quality management plans

Managing environmental and community risk

Regulatory assessments

Regulatory submissions depend on modelling that can withstand technical review. If the model selection, input assumptions, or receptor analysis has gaps, it creates questions your approval timeline can't afford. We deliver dispersion modelling that is technically complete and aligned with regulatory expectations from the outset, so your submission progresses without delays.

Environmental approvals

Dispersion models we use

MRP works with the full suite of regulatory-grade models used in Australian industrial and resource sector assessments. The right model depends on your site conditions, emission sources, and regulatory requirements. We select and run the model that fits the assessment, not a default choice.

AERMOD

Steady-state Gaussian plume model and the standard for most near-field regulatory assessments in Australia. Suited to industrial facilities and complex terrain where building downwash and elevated source emissions need to be resolved.

CALPUFF

Non-steady-state puff model used where AERMOD's assumptions don't hold. Applied in complex coastal meteorology, calm wind conditions, long-range transport, and situations involving fumigation or terrain-driven flow patterns.

SCICHEM

Reactive plume model that accounts for chemical transformation within the plume. Used where NOx to NO2 conversion or secondary pollutant formation needs to be modelled rather than assumed from generic ratios.

Weather Research Forecast (WRF)

WRF is a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model used to generate site-specific meteorological fields where observational data are limited, and to provide inputs for dispersion and air quality modelling.

TAPM

Prognostic meteorological and dispersion model developed by CSIRO. Used to generate site-specific meteorological inputs where observed data is unavailable, or as a standalone model for regional-scale assessments.

CMAQ

Regional photochemical grid model used for cumulative air quality assessments across broader airsheds. Applied where secondary pollutants like ozone and fine particulate matter require multi-source, multi-scale analysis.

Explore additional services

Air Quality Impact Assessments

Independent air quality assessments across diverse sectors, helping clients identify and manage risks to protect communities and the environment.

View Air Quality Impact Assessments

Air Quality Management Plans

We develop air quality management plans for proposed and ongoing projects across Australia.

View Air Quality Management Plans

Environmental Approvals

We support environmental approvals by translating complex air quality data into clear, regulator‑ready evidence helping to support your environmental project approvals.

View Environmental Approvals